ACC showdown pits Heels against 'Canes

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/15/2012 - Coral Gables, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The eighth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels take to the road in search of their fourth straight ACC win away from Chapel Hill, as they invade the BankUnited Center to take on the dangerous Miami- Florida Hurricanes.

Roy Williams' squad dropped a crucial 85-84 decision to arch rival Duke last week, but bounced back with an impressive 70-52 win over nationally-ranked Virginia this past weekend to move to 8-2 in league play, good for a first- place tie with both Duke and Florida State in the standings.

Jim Larranaga's first season with the Hurricanes has been mildly successful. Miami is making a push for NCAA Tournament consideration, highlighted by a huge win over Duke in Durham. However, the momentum gained by a recent five- game win streak, was halted by last weekend's 64-59 road loss at rival Florida State.

The Tar Heels own a 17-2 advantage in the all-time series with the Hurricanes and have won the last nine meetings, including a 73-56 decision in Chapel Hill back on January 10th.

Virginia held North Carolina well under its season average, but it didn't matter, as the Tar Heels still won the game by 18 points this past weekend at the Smith Center. It was once again UNC's frontcourt that made the difference, headlined by Tyler Zeller. The 7-0 senior just missed a double-double with 25 points and nine rebounds. Forwards Harrison Barnes and John Henson however, were able to pull off the feat. Barnes finished the game with 14 points and 11 rebounds, while Henson tallied 10 points and 10 boards for North Carolina, which outrebounded the Cavaliers, 52-32.

Fueled by the nation's premier frontcourt, North Carolina leads the country in scoring (83.5 ppg). Barnes has the ability to score both inside and out and is averaging a team-best 17.5 ppg (second in the ACC). Zeller isn't far behind at 16.0 ppg (fifth in the conference), while Henson pours in 14.0 ppg (ninth in the league). Henson and Zeller make up quite the rebounding tandem as well. Henson leads the ACC with 10.3 rpg, followed closely by Zeller's 9.6 rpg (third in the ACC). Point guard Kendall Marshall is charged with running the offense and although he isn't much of a scorer (6.8 ppg), he ranks first in the ACC and second nationally in assists (9.6 apg).

When compared to UNC's offensive proficiency, Miami lags pretty far behind. The Hurricanes are averaging a modest 71.5 ppg this year, doing so on .438 shooting. Still, there is scoring depth, as four of the team's five starters are averaging double figures. Kenny Kadji and Durand Scott share the team-lead with 12.6 ppg apiece. Malcolm Grant (12.1 ppg) provides support along the perimeter, while Reggie Johnson (11.4 ppg, team-high 6.9 rpg) does the same up front.

The Hurricanes struggled to find their range against the defensively-gifted Seminoles last time out, shooting a mere 41.4 percent from the floor, including an ugly 27.3 percent from three-point range (5-of-22). Kadji led the way at the offensive end with 14 points. Scott finished with 12 points, while Grant added nine. Johnson however, was neutralized in the game, finishing with a mere four points in the loss.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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