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03/09/2010 - Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwight Howard was a force on the interior with 22 points and 15 rebounds, as the Clippers had no answer for the big man or the rest of the Magic in Orlando's 113-87 rout.
Jameer Nelson totaled 17 points with eight assists, Rashard Lewis chipped in with 15 points, Vince Carter contributed 13 points and Matt Barnes joined J.J. Redick in double figures with 10 points apiece for Orlando, which has won six straight.
Howard recorded his 51st double-double of the campaign as Orlando led by as many as 30 and only trailed briefly in the opening quarter.
Baron Davis led the Clippers with 16 points and nine assists off the bench, while Drew Gooden posted a double-double of 12 points and 14 rebounds, Chris Kaman notched 12 points and Steve Blake netted 11 with five assists.
The Clippers have lost four in a row overall, and put a stamp on their disappointing season by severing ties with general manager Mike Dunleavy Tuesday, just over a month after he resigned as head coach to focus exclusively on personnel matters.
Howard exerted his will in the opening 12 minutes, scoring 10 points with six rebounds as the Magic gained a double-digit advantage and control of the game. The Clippers' lone lead came at 2-1, and the Magic raced to a 15-8 edge on Howard's putback slam. Redick's 25-foot trey made the first-quarter margin 31-21.
The lead methodically grew to 15 and then 17 points at 53-36 on Carter's jumper with just over five minutes left in the half. The advantage hit 20 points at 61-41 on Howard's conventional three-point play, and grew to 26 points at 67-41 by quarter's end, as Los Angeles' last field goal came on a Rasual Butler three with 2:54 to play. Orlando scored the half's final 11 points capped by Nelson's jumper just prior to the horn.
Orlando's edge reached its highest margin of 30 points at 84-54 on Nelson's pull-up bucket with 4:35 remaining in the third and the lead stood at 91-68 heading to the fourth.
The Magic cruised to victory from there.
Game Notes
Butler had nine points for the Clippers...Orlando shot 48.9 percent from the floor, while the Clippers connected on 43 percent of their shots...The Clippers shot just six free throws, while Orlando was a perfect 12-of-12 from the charity stripe...The Magic have won seven straight in the series.
<< Predators hold off Thrashers
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Suter and Colin Wilson scored to
propel the Nashville Predators to a 2-1 win over the Atlanta Thrashers at
Philips Arena.
Suter's tally came on a power play early in the first period, whil
<< Bourque highlights Calgary's win in Motown
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rene Bourque assisted on the tying goal early
in the third period and scored the game-winner less than two minutes later, as
the Calgary Flames edged the Detroit Red Wings, 4-2, at Joe Louis Arena.
Jarome Ig
<< Jones shines in Granger's absence as Pacers down Sixers
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dahntay Jones tied a season-high with 25
points and the Indiana Pacers overcame the absence of Danny Granger to beat
Philadelphia, 107-96, at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Granger, who is leading the Pacers at
<< North Texas takes Sun Belt championship
Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh White hit the go-ahead bucket with 24
seconds left and George Odufuwa came up with a key block on the ensuing
series, as North Texas edged Troy, 66-63, for the Sun Belt Conference
Tournam
Kulemin lifts Leafs over Bruins in overtime >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nikolai Kulemin scored with 49.7 seconds left
in overtime, as Toronto tripped up Boston in a 4-3 final from Air Canada
Centre.
Kulemin and Mikhail Grabovski broke out on a 2-on-1 following an end-to-
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Recaps >>
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ricky Harris scored a game-high 24 points as
he led the Massachusetts Minutemen to a 59-56 win over the Charlotte 49ers in
the first round of the 34th annual Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.
Harris finis
Flyers rally to down Isles on Gagne's late score >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Simon Gagne was credited with the game-
winning power-play goal with 6:06 remaining in regulation, as the Philadelphia
Flyers rallied from a two-goal deficit to defeat the New York Islanders, 3-2,
at Wach
Darche, Canadiens down Lightning >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mathieu Darche scored a pair of goals to help
the Montreal Canadiens defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning, 5-3, at the Bell
Centre.
Scott Gomez had a goal and two assists for the Canadiens, who have won th
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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